The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for February is set to be released at 9:30 PM Beijing time on Friday (March 9th). Beyond job growth and the unemployment rate, traders are closely watching wage data, which has become a key market driver.
Last month, a surprise surge in wage growth triggered a sharp sell-off across global stock markets. If wages rise unexpectedly again, we could see another wave of volatility—or even a market correction.
According to foreign media surveys, U.S. non-farm employment is expected to increase by 200,000 in February, matching January’s figure. The unemployment rate is projected to edge down from 4.1% to 4.0%, marking the lowest level in 17 years.
Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% month-over-month, following January’s 0.3% gain. On an annual basis, earnings are expected to increase 2.8%, slightly below January’s 2.9%, which was the strongest growth in more than eight years.
Five Key Points to Watch in This Month’s NFP Report
1. Wage Growth Expected to Slow
Wage data remains the core signal for inflation expectations and potential Federal Reserve policy tightening. In January, wages rose 2.9% year-over-year, the fastest increase since 2009, which fueled fears of rising inflation and faster rate hikes.
However, economists now expect wage growth to cool to 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year. Analysts note that January’s strong number was partly due to higher managerial pay, while weather and flu-related absences among hourly workers distorted the data.
If wage growth slows as expected, it likely won’t derail a March rate hike, but it could shape medium-term Fed expectations.
2. Employment Growth Likely to Stay Solid
The ADP employment report, released earlier this week, showed another strong month of job creation—235,000 new private-sector jobs, beating expectations of 195,000. January’s figure was also revised upward to 244,000.
This suggests continued strength in the U.S. labor market, reinforcing optimism that February’s official non-farm payroll number will remain robust.